Recommended Player Prop Bets for Marlins vs Braves – Saturday August 09, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins meet for the fourth game of their series on August 9, 2025, after the Braves fell to the Marlins 5-3 in yesterday’s matchup. Both teams are currently struggling to find their footing, with the Braves sitting at 48-67 and the Marlins at 57-58. While the Braves are having a particularly rough season, their offense ranks 16th in MLB, suggesting some underlying talent that hasn’t translated into wins.

On the mound, the Braves will send Erick Fedde, who has had a tumultuous year with a 3-12 record and a troubling ERA of 5.32. Fedde’s advanced metrics indicate he is among the 225th best starting pitchers in MLB, making him one of the least effective starters this season. He projects to pitch about 5.8 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs today, but his tendency to allow 6.1 hits and 1.6 walks per outing raises concerns.

In contrast, the Marlins will counter with Sandy Alcantara, ranked 62nd among MLB starters. Despite a disappointing 6-10 record and a high ERA of 6.44, Alcantara’s 4.48 xFIP suggests he may perform better than his numbers indicate, having been somewhat unlucky this season. He is projected to pitch 5.9 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, with a concerning average of 6.0 hits allowed.

With both bullpens in mind, the Braves rank 8th while the Marlins sit at 20th, giving Atlanta a potential edge late in the game. Betting markets see this matchup as a toss-up, with both teams at a moneyline of -110. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. Given the Braves’ offensive capabilities, they could surprise the Marlins despite their struggles.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under Total Bases
  With a .400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Xavier Edwards has performed in the 2nd percentile for power.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under Hits
  Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .314 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .326 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+19.75 Units / 42% ROI)