Recommended Player Prop Bets for D-Backs vs Phillies – Friday May 02, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 2, 2025, both teams find themselves with records of 17-14, indicating an above-average start to the season. This matchup is crucial, as both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested division. The Phillies’ offense ranks 10th best in MLB, but they are somewhat limited in power, sitting 20th in home runs. In contrast, the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense in baseball, showcasing a well-rounded attack that includes a solid home run rate.

The last time these two clubs faced off, the Diamondbacks came out on top, but that game was a few days ago. With Jesus Luzardo on the mound for the Phillies, expectations are high. Luzardo has an impressive 3-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.73 this season, currently ranked as the 36th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system. However, he faces a challenge against a Diamondbacks lineup that is among the least strikeout-prone in the league, potentially limiting his ability to exploit his high strikeout rate.

Merrill Kelly gets the nod for the Diamondbacks. While he carries a solid 3-1 record, his ERA of 4.41 is far from exceptional, and projections suggest he may not be as effective going forward. Both pitchers project to pitch around 5.5 innings, but Luzardo is expected to allow fewer earned runs.

With the Game Total currently set at 9.0 runs, bettors are likely to see plenty of offensive action. The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a strong chance of winning at Citizens Bank Park. While both teams have their strengths, the matchup leans towards the Phillies due to Luzardo’s elite form, making this a game to watch closely for any betting opportunities.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Merrill Kelly has utilized his secondary pitches 7% less often this year (58.8%) than he did last season (65.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit have been among the best in Major League Baseball this year (3rd-) when assessing their 90.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jesus Luzardo’s 95.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Bryce Harper has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 56% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+4.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-180)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)