Recommended Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Cubs – Sunday September 28, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Chicago Cubs

On September 28, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field for the third game of their series. The Cubs are riding high after a recent victory against the Cardinals, winning their last matchup 7-3. With a record of 91-70, the Cubs are having a strong season and are firmly in contention, while the Cardinals, at 78-83, are struggling and have been eliminated from winning their division.

Javier Assad is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Although he ranks as the 235th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he has managed a 3-1 record this season with an average ERA of 4.26. Assad’s ability to generate ground balls (47% GB rate) could bode well against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 29th in home runs, indicating they struggle to generate power.

On the other side, Kyle Leahy is slated to start for the Cardinals. Despite a solid 3.18 ERA this season, his xFIP of 3.77 suggests he might be due for some regression. Leahy has also had 61 appearances out of the bullpen, which raises questions about his stamina for a starting role.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 7th best offense in MLB, with a particularly strong performance in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals rank 23rd offensively, struggling to find their rhythm at the plate. This disparity could play a significant role in the game, especially considering the Cubs’ high implied team total of 4.46 runs compared to the Cardinals’ low total of 3.54 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+275/-390)
  Pedro Pages has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 78.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Javier Assad’s 2041.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.374) provides evidence that Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck this year with his .339 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+15.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+130/-170)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 27% ROI)