Recommended Player Prop Bets for Cardinals vs Cubs – Sunday September 28, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on September 28, 2025, in a pivotal matchup for both teams, though only the Cubs remain in contention for a playoff spot. Currently, the Cubs stand at 91-70, enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals sit at 78-83, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Cubs secured a decisive 7-3 victory over the Cardinals, adding to their momentum.

On the mound, Javier Assad is projected to start for the Cubs. Though he ranks as the 237th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, his ERA of 4.26 is considered average, and he has shown some promise with a 3-1 record this season. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs. However, his high groundball rate should play well against a Cardinals lineup that has hit the 2nd fewest home runs in the league, which limits their power threat.

The Cardinals are expected to counter with Kyle Leahy, who has had a tumultuous season. Although his ERA is an impressive 3.18, his xFIP of 3.77 suggests that he might have been a bit fortunate thus far. Leahy’s average projection of just 3.0 innings pitched today could leave the Cardinals’ bullpen stretched thin.

Offensively, the Cubs boast the 7th best lineup in MLB, highlighted by their 6th ranking in home runs and 4th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 23rd overall with a lackluster offense that has struggled to keep pace.

Given the Cubs’ strong recent performance and the disparity in offensive capabilities, they are positioned well to secure another win in this series. The game total is low at 7.0 runs, indicating a tight contest, but with the Cubs’ considerable advantages, they are favored to come out on top once again.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Leahy encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, Jimmy Crooks).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Javier Assad’s 2041.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 11th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.376) provides evidence that Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck this year with his .342 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+15.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+7.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+12.50 Units / 312% ROI)