Recommended Player Prop Bets for Astros vs Rangers – Saturday September 06, 2025

Houston Astros

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 6, 2025, at Globe Life Field, both teams are keenly aware of the stakes. The Rangers currently hold a 73-69 record and find themselves in the muddled middle of the American League West, while the Astros, with a record of 77-65, are battling for a favorable playoff position. This matchup becomes even more intriguing as the two teams meet for the second time in this series, and the Astros took the first game convincingly.

On the mound, Texas is set to start Jacob deGrom, who has been a standout performer this season, ranking as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. With an impressive 2.69 ERA and a solid 11-6 win/loss record across 26 starts, deGrom projects to pitch around 5.6 innings and allow approximately 2.0 earned runs. However, his performance metrics suggest a possible regression, as his xFIP of 3.27 indicates he may have been fortunate at times.

Hunter Brown will take the hill for Houston, boasting a slightly lower ERA of 2.34 and a record of 10-7 from 27 starts. Brown, ranked 21st among MLB starters, also has favorable projections, expected to pitch about 5.7 innings and allow 2.1 earned runs. With both starters performing well, the game is expected to be a tightly contested battle.

Offensively, the Astros appear to hold the edge. They rank 13th overall in MLB, with a solid .268 batting average, indicating a more productive lineup compared to Texas, which ranks 26th in both batting average and overall offensive production. Although the Rangers have shown promise with home runs—ranking 17th—a lack of consistency could be a significant issue against a competitive Astros pitching staff.

With a game total set at a low 6.5 runs, betting markets have the Rangers slightly favored with a moneyline of -120, suggesting a close contest. Those looking at this matchup should consider the strong statistical performances of both starting pitchers and how they align against the respective lineups.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Among all SPs, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 96.1 mph is in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.293) implies that Jose Altuve has had some very good luck this year with his .336 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Houston Astros hitters as a group rank near the cellar of MLB this year ( 2nd-worst) when it comes to their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Jacob deGrom has recorded 17.3 outs per start this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.0 (+140)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+11.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 130 games (+15.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Josh Jung has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.25 Units / 45% ROI)