Read the Yankees vs Phillies Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 29th, 2024

New York Yankees

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to host the New York Yankees at Citizens Bank Park on July 29, 2024, fans are in for an exciting interleague showdown. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 65-40 record and the Yankees close behind at 62-45. This game marks the beginning of a series that could have significant playoff implications for both squads.

The Phillies, coming off a narrow 4-3 loss to the Cleveland Guardians, will look to rebound with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler, ranked as the #9 best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has been nothing short of elite this season. With a 10-4 record and a sparkling 2.55 ERA, Wheeler has been a cornerstone for the Phillies. However, his 3.47 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky and could regress. In his last start on July 23, Wheeler delivered a masterful performance, pitching seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts.

On the other side, the Yankees are riding high after an 8-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Luis Gil will take the mound for New York, bringing a solid 10-5 record and a 3.10 ERA. Ranked #41 among starting pitchers, Gil has shown he’s more than capable but has also benefited from some luck, as indicated by his 4.04 xFIP. Gil’s high flyball rate (40%) and high walk rate (11.4%) could spell trouble against a powerful and patient Phillies lineup, which ranks 6th in home runs and 4th in walks.

Offensively, both teams are loaded. The Yankees have the 2nd-best offense in MLB, led by Aaron Judge, who is having an MVP-caliber season with 37 home runs and a 1.130 OPS. The Phillies aren’t far behind, with the 6th-best offense, anchored by Bryce Harper. Harper has been phenomenal, hitting .285 with 24 home runs and a .943 OPS.

The Phillies also have the edge in bullpen strength, ranking 4th, compared to the Yankees’ 14th. This could play a crucial role in what is projected to be a close game. THE BAT X projects a 53% win probability for the Phillies, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 56%. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expected high-scoring affair.

All signs point to a thrilling contest with plenty of offensive fireworks and strong pitching matchups. Whether Gil’s flyballs turn into Phillies home runs or Wheeler continues his dominance will be key factors to watch.

New York Yankees Insights

• Luis Gil – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Luis Gil has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 101.9-mph EV last year has lowered to 99.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 10.8% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zack Wheeler has used his change-up 7.6% more often this year (8%) than he did last season (0.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Alec Bohm ranks in the 98th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .301.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games (+17.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+10.80 Units / 16% ROI)