Minnesota Twins
New York Yankees
(+100/-120)-175
As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 11, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Yankees currently hold a record of 62-56 and are enjoying an above-average season, while the Twins sit at 56-61, struggling to find their footing. The Yankees enter this matchup off a stellar performance, having recently secured a complete game shutout, while the Twins are looking to shake off a disappointing stretch.
Pitching takes center stage in this contest, with the Yankees projected to start right-hander Will Warren, who is ranked 89th among starting pitchers in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite an average ERA of 4.44, Warren has a favorable xFIP of 3.66, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this season. He typically pitches around 5.2 innings and projects to allow 2.4 earned runs, but his struggles with walks (10.6 BB%) could pose a challenge against the Twins, who rank 6th in the league for the fewest walks drawn.
On the other side, Zebby Matthews is slated to take the mound for the Twins. He has struggled this season with a 5.17 ERA and ranks 45th among starting pitchers. His low walk rate of 6.0% may not be enough to keep the Yankees’ potent offense at bay. The Yankees boast the 3rd best offense in MLB and lead the league in home runs, making this matchup particularly daunting for Matthews, who is a high-flyball pitcher.
With the Yankees favored significantly with a moneyline of -175, they are projected to score a robust 5.07 runs, while the Twins’ average team total sits at 3.93 runs. Given the Yankees’ offensive firepower and the advantageous pitching matchup, they are well-positioned to take the first game in this series against the Twins.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Zebby Matthews’s 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph rise from last season’s 94.9-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Ryan Jeffers has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)In today’s game, Royce Lewis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.5% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
New York Yankees Insights
- Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Generating 14.5 outs per GS this year on average, Will Warren places him the 15th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Ben Rice has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .337 rate is a fair amount lower than his .410 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-175)The New York Yankees projected offense projects as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.