Read the Twins vs Mets Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 30th, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets and Minnesota Twins gear up for their July 30, 2024, matchup at Citi Field, both teams find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. The Mets, with a 56-50 record, are having an above-average season, while the Twins, at 58-47, are enjoying a solid campaign.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Mets managed to edge out the Twins, setting the stage for an intriguing second game. New York will send left-hander Sean Manaea to the mound. Manaea has had a decent season, posting a 6-4 record with a 3.74 ERA. However, his 4.44 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates Manaea will pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 5.3 batters.

Opposing him will be David Festa, a right-hander for the Twins. Festa’s season has been less impressive, with a 1-1 record and an 8.16 ERA across just three starts. Despite these struggles, his 4.08 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could improve. Projections have Festa pitching 4.7 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 4.5 hits, and 1.5 walks while striking out 4.8 batters.

The Mets’ offense, ranked 7th in MLB, has been a force this season, particularly in the power department, sitting 4th in home runs. This could spell trouble for Festa, a high-flyball pitcher, as the Mets’ sluggers may capitalize on his tendencies. Pete Alonso, the Mets’ hottest hitter over the last week, has been on a tear with a .308 batting average, 1.227 OPS, and three home runs in his last seven games.

On the other side, the Twins boast the 5th-best offense, with strong rankings in batting average (7th) and home runs (8th). Matt Wallner has been their standout performer recently, hitting .385 with a 1.500 OPS and two home runs over his last five games.

Bullpen-wise, the Mets rank 22nd, a significant drop from their year-to-date performance, while the Twins sit at an average 11th. This disparity could be crucial in the later innings.

With the Mets as betting favorites at -140, their implied win probability stands at 56%. The Twins, at +115, have an implied win probability of 44%. Given the Mets’ offensive prowess and Festa’s struggles, New York appears to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  David Festa has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 12.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Willi Castro has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Minnesota Twins makes them the #10 offense in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Sean Manaea’s sinker rate has increased by 32.8% from last year to this one (0.7% to 33.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive talent to be a .317, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .056 disparity between that figure and his actual .373 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.20 Units / 60% ROI)