Read the Rockies vs Braves Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 3rd, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Colorado Rockies on September 3, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Braves, sitting at 74-63, are firmly positioned above average this season, while the Rockies languish at 51-87, marking an abysmal year. The Braves are not in contention for the division title but remain hopeful for a Wild Card spot, which adds a layer of urgency to this matchup.

In their last outing, the Braves managed to secure a win, a much-needed boost as they look to solidify their playoff chances. On the other hand, the Rockies continue to struggle, having lost their last game, which adds to the pressure on them as they face a daunting opponent.

Chris Sale, projected to start for the Braves, is enjoying an outstanding season, boasting a 15-3 record and an impressive 2.58 ERA. His advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, a testament to his elite status. Sale’s high strikeout rate of 32.4 K% gives him a significant edge against a Rockies offense that ranks 3rd in the league for strikeouts.

Kyle Freeland, slated to take the mound for Colorado, has had a disappointing season with a 4-6 record and a 5.51 ERA. His low walk rate may not be enough to counter the Braves’ aggressive hitters, particularly with Atlanta’s offense ranking 13th in the league, despite their below-average batting average.

With the Game Total set at a modest 7.5 runs, the Braves are favored heavily with a moneyline of -380, implying a strong chance for them to capitalize on their home field advantage. The projections suggest the Braves will likely exceed their team total of 4.92 runs, while the Rockies struggle to reach their low total of 2.58 runs. With Sale on the mound, this matchup leans heavily in favor of Atlanta as they aim to tighten their grip on a playoff spot.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Freeland is expected to post an average of 4.2 strikeouts in this game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Michael Toglia is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Chris Sale’s four-seam fastball usage has fallen by 5.2% from last season to this one (43.1% to 37.9%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• It may be sensible to expect better results for the Atlanta Braves offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 128 games (+29.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+295)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 102 games (+4.70 Units / 5% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Ramon Laureano has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+13.50 Units / 32% ROI)