Read the Red Sox vs Rockies Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 23rd, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox continue their interleague series on July 23, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, currently enduring a tough season with a 37-64 record, pulled off a surprising 9-8 victory against the Red Sox in the series opener on July 22. Despite being underdogs with a +140 Moneyline, the Rockies managed to edge out the Red Sox, who entered the game as favorites with a -160 Moneyline.

Ty Blach will take the mound for the Rockies, carrying a 3-5 record and a shaky 5.46 ERA. Although his ERA suggests a rough season, his 4.66 xFIP indicates he’s been somewhat unlucky and might be due for better outings. Blach’s low strikeout rate (11.9%) could actually play to his advantage against the Red Sox, who are 4th in MLB in strikeouts this season. He will need to be cautious, however, as Boston boasts the 6th-best offense, backed by strong power numbers (8th in home runs) and a high team batting average (4th).

On the other side, Cooper Criswell is slated to start for Boston. Criswell has been slightly better with a 4.03 ERA and a 3-4 record. However, his projections for today are less encouraging, with an expected 3.3 earned runs over 4.7 innings. This could spell trouble against a Rockies offense that, while average overall (14th-best), has shown flashes of power, ranking 13th in home runs.

Both teams feature shaky bullpens, with the Rockies ranked 22nd and the Red Sox even lower at 25th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, reflected in the very high Game Total of 11.5 runs.

The Rockies are underdogs again with a +135 Moneyline, giving them an implied win probability of 41%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees more value in the Rockies, projecting their win probability at 46%. With their recent surprising win and Blach’s potential for better performances, this could be a spot to back the Rockies as a value underdog.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Cooper Criswell has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Wong’s true offensive skill to be a .300, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .054 disparity between that figure and his actual .354 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Wong, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O’Neill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ty Blach – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Ty Blach’s change-up usage has risen by 5.5% from last season to this one (21.3% to 26.8%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Michael Toglia has a ton of pop (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (32.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cooper Criswell struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Toglia.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)
  Jake Cave has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)