Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for White Sox vs Rangers Match Thursday, July 25th, 2024)

Chicago White Sox

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox will face off on July 25, 2024, at Globe Life Field in the continuation of their American League series. The Rangers, sitting at 50-52, have had an average season, while the White Sox have struggled significantly with a 27-77 record. This stark contrast in performance is reflected in their respective offensive and bullpen rankings, with the Rangers’ offense and bullpen both sitting in the middle of the pack, while the White Sox rank last in these categories.

Yesterday’s game saw the Rangers dominate the White Sox with a 10-2 victory, a result that was largely expected given the betting lines. The Rangers were massive favorites with a closing Moneyline of -270 and an implied win probability of 71%. Meanwhile, the White Sox were enormous underdogs at +230, carrying only a 29% implied win probability.

Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Rangers, bringing a solid 3.99 ERA and an impressive #52 ranking among starting pitchers. Scherzer has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.44 xERA, suggesting better days ahead. Despite a rough outing in his last start, where he allowed 4 earned runs in just 2 innings, Scherzer projects well for this matchup. The White Sox’s lack of power (ranked 28th in home runs) could play to Scherzer’s advantage as a high-flyball pitcher.

On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Jonathan Cannon, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the league. His 4.58 ERA and 4.06 xFIP indicate he’s been marginally unlucky, but his overall performance has been poor. Cannon’s projections are not favorable, expecting him to allow around 3 earned runs and strike out only 3.7 batters on average.

The offensive matchup heavily favors the Rangers. Though the Rangers’ offense ranks 20th overall, they still outclass the White Sox, who are dead last in several key offensive metrics like batting average and home runs. Marcus Semien and Nate Lowe have been bright spots for Texas, with Lowe particularly hot over the last week, boasting a .316 batting average and a 1.090 OPS.

Given these factors, the Rangers are substantial favorites for today’s game. With a current Moneyline of -245, their implied win probability stands at 69%, aligning closely with the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which also projects a 69% win probability for Texas. The Rangers’ projected run total is a robust 5.15, while the White Sox are projected to score just 3.54 runs. All signs point to another tough day ahead for Chicago.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jonathan Cannon will wring up 3.7 strikeouts in today’s matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Batters such as Eloy Jimenez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Max Scherzer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Max Scherzer should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Robbie Grossman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 86 games (+14.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.95 Units / 64% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)