Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for White Sox vs Astros Match Saturday, August 17th, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on August 17, 2024, they will be looking to bounce back after a surprising 5-4 loss to the White Sox in their previous encounter. This matchup is significant, not only because it’s the second game in the series but also because it showcases the stark contrast in team performance this season.

The Astros hold a solid 65-56 record, ranking 2nd in the American League in team batting average and 11th overall in offensive production, indicating a strong lineup. Yordan Alvarez has been a standout performer, boasting a .304 batting average and a .946 OPS. On the mound, Hunter Brown, who ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, brings a 3.96 ERA and a solid 10-7 record into the game. He projects to allow only 2.0 earned runs on average today, which should bolster the Astros’ chances against a struggling White Sox offense.

In stark contrast, the White Sox are enduring a dismal 30-93 season, with a team ranked 30th in overall offensive production. Their best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, has shown flashes, but the team’s power is lacking, registering just 90 home runs this year. Chris Flexen, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a rough go with a 5.34 ERA and a painful 2-11 record.

Interestingly, the projections favor the Astros heavily, indicating a very high implied team total of 5.56 runs. Given the situation and the Astros’ high-quality bullpen, they should be positioned well to overcome last night’s disappointment and secure a victory today at Minute Maid Park.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Chris Flexen’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 11th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Nicky Lopez is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+300)
  The weakest projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-370)
  Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 86.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 83-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-165)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 57 away games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Luis Robert has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 38% ROI)