Washington Nationals
New York Mets
(-105/-115)-285
As the New York Mets prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 20, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position in the National League East. The Mets currently hold an 80-74 record, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals are struggling at 62-92, marking a disappointing campaign. This game is pivotal for the Mets as they look to solidify their standing, especially after a recent victory against the Nationals in the first game of this series.
On the mound for the Mets, Nolan McLean is projected to start. He has been impressive this season, with a 4-1 record and an exceptional ERA of 1.19 over six starts. McLean’s Power Rankings place him as the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness, although his 3.00 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate. He projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing only 2.0 earned runs, which bodes well against a Nationals lineup that ranks 26th in offense.
Cade Cavalli will take the hill for Washington, but his season has not been as bright. With a 3-1 record and a 4.76 ERA, his projections are below-average, and he struggles with allowing hits and walks. Facing a powerful Mets offense that ranks 6th overall and 4th in home runs, Cavalli will need to find a way to limit the damage.
Despite the Mets’ impressive offensive stats, their recent form has shown signs of inconsistency, though their best hitter has been on a tear. With a current moneyline of -250, the projections suggest a high implied team total of 5.16 runs for the Mets. This matchup sets up favorably for New York, giving them the edge in this critical divisional battle.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Cade Cavalli’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Riley Adams has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 97.6-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Nolan McLean – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Because groundball pitchers hold a substantial edge over groundball hitters, Nolan McLean and his 50.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s matchup going up against 5 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Typically, bats like Starling Marte who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Cade Cavalli.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-285)The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the New York Mets.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 67 games at home (+13.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 78 of their last 139 games (+12.02 Units / 7% ROI)
- Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.95 Units / 52% ROI)