Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Marlins vs Guardians Match Thursday, August 14th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 14, 2025, at Progressive Field, the stakes are clear. Both teams are looking to gain traction as they continue their respective seasons. The Guardians hold a record of 62-57, showing signs of an above-average season, while the Marlins sit at 58-62, indicating a below-average performance thus far.

In their last encounter, the Guardians suffered a disappointing 13-4 loss, which marked a rough outing for their pitching staff. This game represents the third in a series, and the Guardians will hope to bounce back, led by Tanner Bibee on the mound. Bibee is having a solid year, ranked as the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB, and while his 8-9 record and 4.60 ERA suggest some challenges, his 4.05 SIERA indicates he may have been unlucky and could perform better down the stretch. Bibee projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks could be costly if the Guardians’ offense continues to struggle.

On the other side, Edward Cabrera will take the mound for the Marlins. Cabrera, who recently pitched a remarkable complete game allowing only one earned run while striking out 11, is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs over 5.1 innings. His great 3.08 ERA, however, may be inflated, as the projections suggest he could regress due to some luck this season.

Offensively, the Guardians rank a dismal 27th in MLB, with a particularly troubling 29th in batting average. In contrast, the Marlins have an average offense, ranking 18th and holding the 9th spot in batting average. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs set, betting markets believe this matchup will be closely contested, and the Guardians, with their slight edge in the odds, will look to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edward Cabrera to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last year’s 94.4-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Miami’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Tanner Bibee has utilized his four-seam fastball 16.8% less often this season (26.6%) than he did last year (43.4%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Kyle Manzardo is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Miami (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+14.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Edward Cabrera has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 73% ROI)