Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Marlins vs Astros Match (09/07/2024)

Miami Marlins

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Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will be hosting the Miami Marlins at Minute Maid Park on July 9, 2024, in what looks like a favorable matchup for Houston. The Astros sit at 46-44, reflecting an average season so far, while the Marlins are struggling with a 32-58 record. This interleague contest will kick off the first game of the series between these two teams.

The pitching matchup will feature Ronel Blanco for the Astros and Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. Blanco, a right-hander, holds a strong 8-3 record with a stellar 2.53 ERA this season. Despite his impressive surface stats, his 4.23 xFIP suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Blanco is also a high-flyball pitcher (41 FB%) but this may not be a significant issue against a Marlins lineup that ranks last in home runs (#30 in MLB).

Trevor Rogers, on the other hand, has had a tough year, holding a 1-9 record with a 4.91 ERA. His low strikeout rate (18.2 K%) could be problematic against a disciplined Astros offense that strikes out less than any other team in the league. Houston’s offense has been one of the best in MLB this season, ranking 6th overall. They are particularly strong in batting average (#1) and home runs (#9). Yordan Alvarez, their standout hitter, has been exceptional, posting a .298 batting average and a .927 OPS on the season.

In their last games, the Astros faced the Twins and came up short with a 3-2 loss, while the Marlins beat the White Sox 7-4. Despite these outcomes, the overall season performance and statistical matchups suggest the Astros are in a strong position. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, pegs Houston as the favorite with a 59% win probability. The betting market aligns closely, giving the Astros a 67% implied win probability based on their -230 moneyline.

For those looking at potential value, THE BAT X indicates the Marlins have an 8% greater win probability than the betting market suggests with their +195 moneyline. This could make Miami an interesting underdog play despite their struggles. Nonetheless, Houston’s potent lineup and Blanco’s season performance give them the upper hand as they aim to rebound and start the series on a strong note.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Trevor Rogers’s fastball spin rate of 2430 rpm is in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nick Fortes’s true offensive skill to be a .270, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .068 difference between that mark and his actual .202 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #24 club in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Ronel Blanco has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chas McCormick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Chas McCormick’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)