Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Braves vs Padres Match Wednesday, October 2nd, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

As the National League Wild Card series continues, the San Diego Padres look to carry their momentum from a dominant 4-0 shutout over the Atlanta Braves into tonight’s matchup at Petco Park. The Padres’ victory on October 1, 2024, showcased their potent offense and stellar pitching, setting the stage for an intriguing showdown.

The Padres will send Joe Musgrove to the mound, who ranks as the 33rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Musgrove’s solid 3.88 ERA this season indicates his capability to stifle opposing offenses. However, his projected 4.7 innings today suggests a shorter outing, potentially testing the Padres’ bullpen, which is ranked 3rd best in baseball.

On the other side, the Braves counter with Max Fried, the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 3.25 ERA. Despite his elite status, Fried’s projections today suggest he might allow more hits and walks than usual. His recent complete game shutout on September 27, 2024, highlights his potential to dominate.

Offensively, San Diego’s bats are among the best, ranking 1st in team batting average and 6th overall. Jurickson Profar leads the charge with a .279 batting average and an .835 OPS. Meanwhile, the Braves, ranked 12th in offense, rely on Marcell Ozuna’s .302 batting average and .922 OPS, with power being their strength as they rank 4th in home runs.

In a game with playoff implications, both teams are expected to keep things tight, as indicated by the low Game Total of 6.5 runs. The Padres are slight favorites with a moneyline of -115, while THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a 53% win probability. As both teams vie for a crucial victory, expect a closely contested game with each side looking to capitalize on the other’s weaknesses.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Michael Harris II is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves (22.9% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-most strikeout-heavy lineup of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joe Musgrove to throw 74 pitches today (2nd-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 112 games (+16.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 149 games (+40.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)