Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Braves vs Cardinals Match Saturday, July 12th, 2025

Atlanta Braves

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on July 12, 2025, they are looking to bounce back from a narrow 6-5 loss in yesterday’s game, which marked the first contest of this series. Currently, the Cardinals sit at 50-45, enjoying an above-average season, while the Braves are struggling at 41-52.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, with the Cardinals projected to start Erick Fedde, who has had a rough season with a 3-9 record and a below-average ERA of 4.79. Despite being ranked as the 208th best starting pitcher in MLB, Fedde’s recent performance suggests he could face challenges today, having allowed 3 earned runs in just 1 inning during his last outing. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings tonight, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs.

Conversely, Nathan Wiles will take the mound for the Braves, having made only one appearance out of the bullpen this season. His current ERA is a staggering 27.00, but projections indicate he may be due for better fortune, as his xFIP of 2.57 suggests he has been unlucky. Wiles is projected to last 5.1 innings and allow about 3.0 earned runs.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 14th in MLB, bolstered by their best hitter’s impressive recent stretch, including a .391 batting average over the last week. On the other hand, the Braves’ offense ranks 20th, with their best hitter showing some pop recently, hitting 3 home runs in the last week.

With the Cardinals holding a solid implied team total of 4.97 runs, they appear to have the edge in this matchup, particularly against a struggling Braves’ pitching staff. As the series continues, both teams will be eager to make their mark, but the Cardinals may have the upper hand in this contest.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Nathan Wiles is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Erick Fedde.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has used his secondary offerings 6.1% less often this season (62.8%) than he did last year (68.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Nolan Gorman has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nathan Wiles has a pitch-to-contact profile (6th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 28% ROI)