Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Athletics vs Reds Match Wednesday, August 28th, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds host the Oakland Athletics on August 28, 2024, in a matchup that carries significance for both teams, though neither is in contention for a playoff spot. The Reds, currently sitting at 63-69, are having a below-average season, while the Athletics at 57-75 are struggling through a particularly rough stretch.

In their last game on August 27, the Reds suffered a narrow defeat to the Athletics, losing 5-4. This game marks the second encounter of the series, and both teams will look to adjust their strategies after a tightly contested opener. The Reds are projected to start Fernando Cruz, who, despite being an average pitcher by Power Rankings, comes off a bullpen role this season with a 3-8 record and a 5.30 ERA. While his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) suggests he might improve, Cruz’s ability to go deep into games remains a concern, as he averages just 1.6 innings pitched.

On the other side, Osvaldo Bido is set to take the mound for the Athletics. With a solid 3.24 ERA this season, he is coming off a strong performance where he allowed only one earned run over five innings on August 22. However, his 4.78 xFIP indicates that luck may not be on his side moving forward.

Offensively, the Reds rank 17th in MLB, while the Athletics sit at 22nd. Power-wise, the Athletics have been strong, ranking 4th in home runs, but their overall offensive struggles make them vulnerable. The projections indicate a slight edge for the Reds, who are favored with a high implied team total of 5.18 runs, suggesting a favorable outcome could be in the cards if Cruz can limit the damage early. Given the high total of 10.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting clash as both teams aim to capitalize on their opportunities.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Given the 1.31 disparity between Osvaldo Bido’s 3.24 ERA and his 4.55 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to see negative regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)
  Among every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Dominic Smith is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 114 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 86 games (+10.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-145/+110)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)