San Diego Padres
New York Mets
(-110/-110)-140
As the New York Mets prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 18, 2025, both teams encounter this matchup in varied conditions. The Mets, sitting at 78-74, have been averaging out this season, while the Padres boast a stronger 83-69 record, indicating their above-average performance. This game is pivotal for the Mets as they continue to fight for a Wild Card spot, while the Padres look to solidify their postseason positioning.
In their previous game, the Padres showcased their offensive prowess with a strong outing, but they’ll need to elevate their performance further against the Mets’ potent lineup, which ranks as the 7th best offense in MLB. The Mets have demonstrated their capability to hit home runs, ranking 6th in the league, which could be crucial in this matchup against Padres pitcher Randy Vasquez. The projections suggest that the Mets should capitalize on Vasquez’s tendency to allow fly balls, which could translate into extra-base hits or home runs.
On the mound, Jonah Tong is set to start for the Mets, and he has faced difficulties this season, with a Win/Loss record of 1-2 and an alarming ERA of 8.49. However, his 4.56 xFIP indicates some misfortune, hinting at potential improvement. In contrast, while Vasquez’s ERA of 3.72 reflects solid performance, his xFIP of 5.61 suggests he may be due for regression.
Betting markets currently favor the Mets with a moneyline of -130, reflecting a slightly higher implied team total of 4.71 runs compared to the Padres’ 4.29. Given the Mets’ strong offensive capabilities against a struggling pitcher, they may very well find a way to turn their average season into a memorable win at Citi Field.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Randy Vasquez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (61.1% vs. 55.9% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.8-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
New York Mets Insights
- Jonah Tong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Out of all starters, Jonah Tong’s fastball velocity of 95.1 mph grades out in the 84th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- New York Mets batters as a group rank among the best in the league this year (2nd-) when it comes to their 90.6-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+11.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 139 games (+11.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)