Read the Nationals vs Marlins Prediction and Game Breakdown – April 12th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins host the Washington Nationals on April 12, 2025, the stakes are particularly high given that the Nationals are struggling with a record of 5-7, while the Marlins sit at 6-6 this season. The Marlins are looking to build on their average performance, especially after winning the first game of this series, and are favored at -145 on the moneyline, translating to an implied win probability of 57%.

Pitching is key in this matchup. Sandy Alcantara, the projected starter for Miami, ranks as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. While Alcantara’s 5.7 innings pitched is about average, he projects to allow only 2.1 earned runs, which is impressive. However, he does struggle with hits, projected to allow 4.9, and walks, averaging 1.4. Despite these weaknesses, his capability to limit earned runs gives the Marlins a strong advantage.

In contrast, Trevor Williams of the Nationals has been struggling, ranked among the worst pitchers in the league. He projects to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.1 innings with a concerning 5.3 hits and 1.5 walks. This mismatch puts the Marlins in a favorable position as they exploit Williams’ inefficiencies.

Both teams’ best hitters come into this game hot; Miami’s best hitter has been productive with a .353 batting average and 1.271 OPS over the last week, while Washington’s counterpart is also proving effective with a .300 batting average and 1.240 OPS.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Out of all starting pitchers, Trevor Williams’s fastball velocity of 88.6 mph is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Given that flyball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over flyball batters, Sandy Alcantara and his 50.3% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in today’s game facing 5 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.