Read the Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 9th, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

St. Louis Cardinals

On July 9, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Cardinals enter this game with a record of 49-43, showcasing an above-average season, while the Nationals sit at 37-54, reflecting a tough year. In their last encounter, St. Louis secured a 4-2 victory, continuing their trend of solid play against Washington.

The pitching duel will feature Andre Pallante for the Cardinals and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Pallante, ranked 81st among MLB starters, has had an up-and-down season with a 5-4 record and an ERA of 4.10. His last start was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball against the Nationals. However, his projections indicate he struggles with strikeouts, making him vulnerable against a Nationals offense that ranks 4th in the fewest strikeouts.

On the other hand, MacKenzie Gore has been more effective, currently ranked 43rd among starting pitchers. Though he holds a disappointing record of 3-8, his ERA of 3.11 suggests he has been a bright spot for Washington. Gore has been consistent in his last outing, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 14th overall while the Nationals sit at 20th, highlighting a slight edge for St. Louis. However, Washington’s best hitter has been on fire lately, boasting a .476 batting average over the past week. The Cardinals, while having a solid offensive showing, rank 23rd in home runs, which could limit their scoring potential.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and tight moneyline odds, this matchup is expected to be closely contested. Given Pallante’s recent performance and the Cardinals’ current form, they may have the upper hand, even if their implied win probability suggests a nail-biter.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  With a .197 wOBA over the past 14 days, Riley Adams has been struggling at the plate.
  Explain: Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals grades them out as the #23 club in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.2% more often this year (39.1%) than he did last year (30.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Garrett Hampson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Checking in at the 2nd percentile, Garrett Hampson has put up a .111 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.0 (+130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.94 Units / 12% ROI)
• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Andre Pallante has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)