Read the Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 9th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 9, 2025, they enter the matchup following a solid victory over the Nationals yesterday, winning 4-2. The Cardinals, standing at 49-43, are enjoying an above-average season and currently sit in a more favorable position than the Nationals, who are struggling at 37-54.

In today’s game, the Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Andre Pallante, who has had a mixed season with a 5-4 record and a 4.10 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB, his recent performance shows promise; Pallante pitched a complete game shutout in his last start on July 1, allowing no earned runs over seven innings. However, he faces a challenge against a Nationals lineup that, while not particularly strong overall, has the 8th best stolen base record in MLB, which could put pressure on his ability to control the game.

MacKenzie Gore, the left-handed pitcher for the Nationals, has also had his ups and downs this season, with a 3-8 record and a much better ERA of 3.11, ranking him 43rd among MLB starters. Gore’s tendency to issue walks—projected at 1.8 today—could further complicate matters against a Cardinals offense that ranks 14th overall but has shown flashes of potential.

With the Cardinals favored in the betting market, they have an average implied team total of 4.04 runs, while the Nationals are projected at a low 3.46 runs. Given Pallante’s ability to limit runs and his recent form, the Cardinals are positioned well to capitalize on their home advantage and continue their winning streak against a struggling Nationals team.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  MacKenzie Gore is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #26 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  With a .197 wOBA over the past 14 days, Riley Adams has been struggling at the plate.
  Explain: Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals grades them out as the #23 club in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 8.2% more often this year (39.1%) than he did last year (30.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Brendan Donovan’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+160)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.94 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-185)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.90 Units / 25% ROI)