New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-120
The New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to square off in the final game of their series on July 8, 2024, at PNC Park. The Pirates have struggled this season with a 42-47 record, while the Mets are sitting at an even 44-44, indicating an average year. Both teams are looking for a win to gain some momentum as they move deeper into the season. In their last matchup on July 7, the Mets edged out the Pirates with a narrow 3-2 victory.
On the mound for the Pirates will be Mitch Keller, who has been solid this season with a 9-5 record and an impressive 3.48 ERA. However, his 3.98 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, indicating potential regression. The Pirates’ offense, ranked 27th in MLB, will need to step up to support Keller, especially given their subpar team batting average and stolen base rankings.
The Mets will counter with Christian Scott, who has had a rocky season, holding a 0-2 record with a 4.32 ERA. Despite his struggles, Scott faces a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge despite his low strikeout rate (19.9 K%).
Offensively, the Mets are the better team, ranking 11th in both overall offense and batting average, and 4th in home runs. Francisco Lindor has been a standout for the Mets and is coming off a strong week with a .276 batting average and .895 OPS over his last seven games. The Pirates’ Rowdy Tellez has been hot recently, boasting a .412 batting average and 1.386 OPS over his last six games.
Both bullpens could play a pivotal role in the outcome. The Pirates’ bullpen ranks 10th, while the Mets’ ranks 17th. This game is projected to be another close one, with the Pirates currently favored with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Pirates a slightly higher edge with a 53% win probability. The Pirates will need a strong performance from Keller and timely hitting to secure a win and even up this series.
New York Mets Insights
- Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Christian Scott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2202 rpm) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (2253 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Francisco Alvarez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph dropping to 82-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Mitch Keller will “start” for Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s matchup but will function as an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple framess.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Nick Gonzales has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 14.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a fair amount lower than his 25.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jared Triolo, Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+160/-210)J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)