Read the Guardians vs Tigers Prediction and Game Breakdown – July 08, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on July 8, 2024. This American League Central matchup sees the Tigers, with a 42-48 record, trying to turn around a below-average season. Meanwhile, the Guardians, sitting at 56-32, are having a stellar year and currently lead the division.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Keider Montero, a right-hander who has struggled this season. Montero holds a 1-2 record with a 6.60 ERA, though his 4.20 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, another righty who has posted an 11.25 ERA in his lone start this year. Williams also appears to be a victim of bad luck, with a 6.56 xFIP indicating better days could be ahead.

Offensively, the Tigers have been one of the weakest teams in the league, ranking 27th overall according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. They also rank 25th in batting average and 21st in home runs, making it difficult for them to support their struggling pitching staff. The Guardians, on the other hand, boast the 12th-best offense and are particularly strong in power, ranking 10th in home runs.

The Tigers’ bullpen is ranked 15th, a middle-of-the-pack standing that contrasts sharply with the Guardians’ bullpen, which is ranked 3rd and has been a key component of their success this season.

Colt Keith has been a bright spot for the Tigers recently, hitting .375 with a 1.256 OPS over the last week. On the Guardians’ side, Angel Martinez has been hot, batting .444 with a 1.373 OPS in his last four games.

Despite the Tigers being underdogs with a +125 moneyline and an implied win probability of 43%, there are some reasons for optimism. Montero’s underlying metrics suggest he might pitch better than his surface stats indicate, and the Guardians’ offense will need to capitalize on his mistakes. However, the Guardians remain favored with a -145 moneyline and a 57% implied win probability, underscoring their overall strength this season.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  Out of all the teams today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Steven Kwan has been lucky this year. His .412 mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero will “start” for Detroit Tigers in today’s matchup but will fill the role of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)
  Colt Keith has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)