Read the Giants vs Royals Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 21st, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants prepare for their second game of the series on September 21, 2024, each team has contrasting motivations. The Royals, with an 82-72 record, are having an above-average season and remain in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Giants, sitting at 75-79, are having an average season and are not currently contending for postseason play.

In the previous matchup, the Giants edged out the Royals with a 2-1 victory. Both teams will now turn to their starting pitchers, Brady Singer for the Royals and Landen Roupp for the Giants. Singer, ranked as the 62nd-best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a solid 3.53 ERA this season, although his 4.47 xERA suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Conversely, Roupp, ranked 87th, holds a sparkling 3.02 ERA, but his 4.04 xFIP indicates he’s also benefited from some good luck.

Offensively, the Royals have the edge, ranking as the 14th-best offense overall with particular strength in batting average (6th) and stolen bases (10th). Their lineup is spearheaded by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been exceptional, maintaining a .334 batting average with 32 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Witt Jr. has also been on a hot streak, hitting .400 over his last six games.

The Giants, ranked 21st in offense, struggle in several key areas, including batting average and home runs, where they rank 20th. Heliot Ramos has been the standout performer for San Francisco, with a .270 batting average and a .333 mark over the past week.

The Royals enter as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Kansas City is favored with a 56% chance of victory. The Royals are projected to score 4.95 runs, while the Giants are expected to put up 4.63 runs. With both teams looking to capitalize on their strengths, expect an intriguing matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  With a 1.12 difference between Landen Roupp’s 3.02 ERA and his 4.14 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to perform worse in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 87.5-mph seasonal average has fallen to 73.6-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt Chapman, Tyler Fitzgerald, Grant McCray, Heliot Ramos).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2335 rpm) has been quite a bit better than than his seasonal rate (2275 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Freddy Fermin has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .311 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .269 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Kansas City’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #4 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 75 games at home (+8.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.90 Units / 32% ROI)