Read the Giants vs Nationals Prediction and Game Breakdown – May 25th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Washington Nationals

As the San Francisco Giants visit Nationals Park on May 25, 2025, they look to bounce back from a disappointing 3-0 loss to the Washington Nationals in the previous game. This matchup marks the third in their series, with the Giants currently holding a solid 30-22 record, while the Nationals sit at 24-28, struggling to find consistency this season.

Starting for the Nationals is Mike Soroka, who has experienced a challenging year with a 1-2 record and a troubling 5.95 ERA. However, his 2.90 xFIP indicates he may be due for a turnaround, suggesting some bad luck has contributed to his struggles. Soroka’s recent outing on May 18, where he pitched 6 innings with 3 earned runs and 8 strikeouts, was relatively uneventful, but he projects to pitch around 5.1 innings today, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs.

On the other side, Robbie Ray takes the mound for the Giants. With a stellar 6-0 record and an impressive 2.67 ERA, Ray has been a key contributor to the Giants’ success. His last start on May 19 was particularly noteworthy, as he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball, striking out 7 batters. Ray’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing about 2.5 earned runs, which should keep the Giants competitive.

Despite the Giants’ solid season, their offense ranks just 21st in MLB, while the Nationals have a slightly better 17th-ranked offense. The Nationals’ ability to capitalize on their top hitter’s recent form, boasting a .389 batting average over the last week, could prove crucial in this matchup. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Nationals are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +125, but their recent performance may offer them a glimmer of hope against a Giants team that has shown vulnerabilities.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Considering the 1.63 gap between Robbie Ray’s 2.67 ERA and his 4.30 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mike Soroka.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Mike Soroka’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.7 mph this season (93.7 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  James Wood has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.7% rate last year to 18% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Riley Adams, the Nationals’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.89 Units / 16% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+5.50 Units / 48% ROI)