San Francisco Giants
Washington Nationals
(-110/-110)+145
On August 5, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the San Francisco Giants at Nationals Park in what marks the opening game of their series. Currently, the Nationals sit with a record of 51-61, struggling through a below-average season, while the Giants are slightly better at 56-57, indicating an average performance overall.
In their last games, the Nationals secured a narrow victory over the Milwaukee Brewers, winning 4-3, while the Giants displayed dominance with an 8-2 win against the Cincinnati Reds. Notably, Logan Webb of the Giants recently pitched a complete game shutout, showcasing his elite skills on the mound.
The pitching matchup features Patrick Corbin projected to start for the Nationals. Corbin has had a tough season with a 2-11 record and an ERA of 5.88, ranking him as the 303rd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB. His peripherals suggest he may improve, but his recent form—allowing 10 earned runs in his last start—raises concerns. In contrast, Webb, ranked 11th overall, has an impressive ERA of 3.49 and is projected to pitch 6.7 innings while allowing just 2.4 earned runs.
Offensively, the Nationals rank 25th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, hitting only 85 home runs this season. The Giants, while also lacking in home runs, rank slightly higher at 14th. According to the leading MLB projection system, the Giants are favored to win with a projected team total of 5.29 runs, compared to the Nationals’ low projection of 3.43 runs. With the Nationals’ bullpen ranked 29th, the Giants may exploit their opportunities early in this matchup.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Logan Webb’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (45.2 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)When it comes to his home runs, Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky since the start of last season. His 42.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Among all starters, Patrick Corbin’s fastball velocity of 90.9 mph grades out in the 12th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+145)The weakest projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Washington Nationals.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 58 of their last 100 games (+10.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+13.20 Units / 49% ROI)