Read the Giants vs D-Backs Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 25th, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the MLB season winds down, the Arizona Diamondbacks are poised to take on the San Francisco Giants in what promises to be an intriguing matchup on September 25, 2024, at Chase Field. Arizona, currently holding an 87-71 record, is having a robust season and is in strong contention within the National League West. Meanwhile, the Giants sit at an even 79-79, trying to cap off an average campaign with some positive momentum.

The Diamondbacks, backed by the leading MLB projection system, are heavily favored with a 66% projected win probability. Arizona’s offense is a powerhouse, boasting the 1st best ranking across the league. This potent lineup will face off against Mason Black of the Giants, who is struggling with a 5.88 ERA and is known to give up flyballs—a dangerous mix against a D-Backs team ranking 5th in home runs.

Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona, riding a wave of consistency with a solid 13-6 record and a respectable 3.74 ERA. Gallen’s ability to keep batters at bay with an average of 6.8 strikeouts per game is a key factor in Arizona’s success. Despite projecting to allow a high number of hits, his dominance is expected to shine through against a Giants offense that ranks 20th in batting average and lacks speed on the bases.

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen, ranked 5th best, complements their starting rotation well, giving them an edge in close games. Despite a strong bullpen on their own, the Giants’ middle-of-the-road offense may struggle to capitalize against Arizona’s pitching depth.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+195)
  Mason Black is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky this year, compiling a .361 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .293 — a .068 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Zac Gallen has gone to his slider 5.5% more often this year (8.9%) than he did last season (3.4%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Over the last two weeks, Joc Pederson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 106 games (+27.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+220)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 38 games (+34.10 Units / 90% ROI)