Read the Giants vs D-Backs Prediction and Game Breakdown – September 25th, 2024

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the MLB regular season winds down, the Arizona Diamondbacks are gearing up for a home showdown against the San Francisco Giants on September 25, 2024, at Chase Field. This National League West matchup carries playoff implications for the D-Backs, who boast an 87-71 record, positioning them favorably for postseason play. In contrast, the Giants sit at 79-79, reflecting an average season with slim playoff hopes.

Arizona’s ace Zac Gallen will take the mound, bringing a solid 13-6 record and a respectable 3.74 ERA into the game. Known for his elite status, Gallen ranks as the 25th-best starting pitcher in MLB, which highlights his impact on the Diamondbacks’ success. His projection today includes a decent outing with 5.7 innings pitched and a high likelihood of 6.8 strikeouts.

On the other hand, the Giants will counter with Mason Black, whose struggles this season have led to a 1-4 record and a concerning 5.88 ERA. Despite these challenges, Black’s 5.01 xFIP suggests some potential for better outings as his season progresses. However, his high-flyball tendencies could be problematic against the powerful D-Backs offense, which ranks 5th in home runs and could exploit this vulnerability.

Offensively, the D-Backs are a force to be reckoned with, ranking 1st in MLB according to advanced Power Rankings, significantly higher than their 15th rank in stolen bases. Ketel Marte has been particularly hot, boasting a remarkable .364 average and a 1.397 OPS over his last seven games. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense lags, ranking 21st in the Power Rankings, slightly better than their 28th spot in stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Arizona a commanding 66% win probability, emphasizing their dominance both on the mound and at the plate. As big favorites in this matchup, the D-Backs are primed to leverage their strengths and secure an important victory in their playoff pursuit.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)
  Mason Black is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has been lucky this year, compiling a .355 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .292 — a .063 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Mason Black – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Zac Gallen has gone to his slider 5.5% more often this year (8.9%) than he did last season (3.4%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Over the past week, Joc Pederson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 106 games (+27.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (+190)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 away games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 38 games (+34.10 Units / 90% ROI)