Read the Game Recap for Tigers vs Giants – August 10th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Detroit Tigers at Oracle Park on August 10, 2024, the stakes are modest but the matchup intriguing. The Giants, at 60-58, are having an average season, while the Tigers sit at 55-62, struggling to find their footing. This game marks the second in a series that began with a close 3-2 victory for the Giants on August 9, where they showcased their resilience against a Tigers team that has been underperforming.

Logan Webb, projected to start for the Giants, is currently ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, and he has been a consistent presence on the mound this season. With a solid 3.42 ERA, Webb’s performance suggests he is capable of keeping the Tigers’ offense, which ranks a disappointing 28th in MLB, at bay. His projections for today’s game are impressive, allowing an average of just 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters. On the other hand, Alex Faedo, slated to pitch for the Tigers, has had a rocky season with a 3.69 ERA but struggles with a 4.70 FIP, indicating he may not be able to maintain his current success.

The Giants’ offense, while average overall, has seen Michael Conforto heat up recently, boasting a .458 batting average over the last week. With a high implied team total of 4.57 runs, the Giants will look to capitalize on Faedo’s vulnerabilities while relying on their 1st ranked bullpen to secure the win.

Given the projections that favor the Giants significantly, they appear to be the team to watch in this matchup. With their recent win and Webb’s strong track record, San Francisco is poised to continue their success against a struggling Detroit squad.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Parker Meadows pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Logan Webb’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (44.9 compared to 37.3% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 96.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-165)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1300/-10000)
  Javier Baez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+21.50 Units / 215% ROI)