Read the Game Recap for Reds vs Nationals – July 21st, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds continue their series at Nationals Park on July 21, 2024, with both teams looking to improve on their below-average seasons. The Nationals hold a 46-53 record, while the Reds sit at 47-52. Despite their struggles, both teams have shown flashes of potential, as evidenced by the Nationals’ narrow 5-4 victory over the Reds on July 20.

Jake Irvin will take the mound for Washington. The right-hander has posted a solid 3.49 ERA over 20 starts, though his 4.02 SIERA suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Irvin’s 7-8 record and recent blowup, where he allowed six earned runs over four innings, indicates some inconsistency. He is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, which is average.

On the other side, Cincinnati will counter with Andrew Abbott, a lefty with a 3.39 ERA over 19 starts. Abbott, like Irvin, has shown signs of good fortune as his 4.85 xFIP suggests potential regression. Abbott’s 9-6 record and recent struggles, including a five-earned run outing over just three innings, also highlight his volatility. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs.

Both teams’ offenses have struggled this season. The Nationals rank 26th in MLB in overall offense, though they have a respectable 19th ranking in team batting average. Their power has been lacking, with only 80 home runs, 29th in the league. However, Washington’s strength lies in their speed, ranking 3rd in stolen bases.

The Reds’ offense, while better overall at 18th, also faces challenges. They rank 26th in team batting average but fare better in power, sitting 14th in home runs. Cincinnati leads MLB in stolen bases, which could be a significant factor in this matchup.

Betting markets see this as a toss-up, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects this as a close game, with the Nationals having a slight edge. Washington’s implied team total is 4.50 runs, while Cincinnati’s is also 4.50, indicating a high-scoring affair. THE BAT X projects the Nationals to score 4.41 runs and the Reds to score 4.66 runs on average.

In a matchup of evenly matched teams, look for the Nationals to leverage their speed and slightly better projections to edge out the Reds in what promises to be a closely contested game.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The Washington Nationals have 7 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jeimer Candelario has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.5% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his last GS, Jake Irvin conceded a monstrous 6 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 89.9-mph figure last year has dropped to 86.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 84 games (+8.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-165)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Will Benson has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 62% ROI)