Read the Game Recap for Rays vs Orioles – September 6th, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 6, 2024, this American League East matchup carries significant weight. The Orioles currently sit at 81-60, showcasing a strong season, while the Rays are struggling at 69-71, reflecting an average performance. The Orioles are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 8-1 loss to the Chicago White Sox on September 4, while the Rays fell short against the Minnesota Twins, losing 4-3.

Dean Kremer is projected to take the mound for the Orioles, aiming to improve on his 6-9 record and 4.51 ERA this season. Despite being ranked 173rd among MLB starters, Kremer has the potential to capitalize on a Rays offense that ranks 27th in the league, struggling significantly with power. With a high flyball rate of 41%, Kremer may find success against a lineup that has hit just 97 home runs this year, the 5th least in MLB.

On the other side, Shane Baz will start for the Rays. Although his ERA is impressive at 3.49, his 4.66 xFIP suggests he might be due for regression. Baz has also struggled with control, boasting a 9.7% walk rate, which could be problematic against the Orioles’ disciplined hitters. The projections indicate that the Orioles are favored, with a high implied team total of 4.70 runs, while the Rays are expected to score around 3.80 runs.

Overall, with the Orioles ranking 1st in MLB in home runs and 4th in overall offense, they are poised to take advantage of the matchup against Baz and the struggling Rays. This game could be pivotal as the Orioles look to solidify their position in the standings.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+140)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dylan Carlson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays projected lineup grades out as the 4th-worst of the day in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Dean Kremer has averaged 93.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Adley Rutschman has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 77.7-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 73 of their last 132 games (+20.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 76 of their last 130 games (+17.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 45 games (+20.50 Units / 46% ROI)