Read the Game Recap for Cubs vs Phillies – September 25th, 2024

Chicago Cubs

@

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Citizens Bank Park on September 25, 2024, in the concluding game of their series. This matchup features two teams with differing season trajectories. The Phillies, with a record of 93-65, have clinched a playoff spot and are looking to finish the regular season strong. On the other hand, the Cubs are sitting at 81-77, battling to secure a Wild Card berth.

The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound, who has been nothing short of stellar this season. Ranked as the 22nd best starting pitcher, Sanchez boasts an impressive ERA of 3.25 and possesses a low-walk rate, a crucial asset against the Cubs’ patient lineup, which ranks 6th in walks drawn.

Conversely, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad. While his ERA of 3.34 appears solid, his xFIP of 4.60 suggests some regression is imminent. Furthermore, Assad’s projections for this game—4.8 innings pitched and 2.8 earned runs allowed—don’t inspire confidence against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in overall offense and batting average.

The Phillies’ offense has been heating up, led by J.T. Realmuto, who has a .316 average and a 1.034 OPS over the last week. In contrast, Mike Tauchman has been a bright spot for the Cubs, with a .400 average and a 1.300 OPS over the same period.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Phillies are favored with a 66% win probability, as they look to leverage their strong offense and Sanchez’s effective pitching. With the Cubs as clear underdogs, this game could prove pivotal in their fight for a postseason spot. The Phillies’ projected 5.03 runs compared to the Cubs’ 3.73 further tilts the balance in favor of the home team.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Javier Assad’s 2034-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 10th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom, Pete Crow-Armstrong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because flyball batters hold a substantial edge over groundball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez and his 55.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today’s outing squaring off against 1 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Bryce Harper will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a group rank 22nd- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+9.90 Units / 56% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 59% ROI)