Read the Boxscore for Mets vs Marlins – Friday July 19th, 2024

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins are set to host the New York Mets on July 19, 2024, at LoanDepot Park for the first game of their National League East series. This matchup features a stark contrast between the two teams’ seasons, with the Marlins holding a dismal 33-63 record and the Mets sitting at an above-average 49-46.

The Marlins are coming off a narrow 3-2 victory over the Reds on July 14, a win where they were significant underdogs with a +160 Moneyline. On the other side, the Mets suffered an 8-5 upset loss to the Rockies, despite being heavy favorites with a -200 Moneyline.

On the mound, the Marlins will start Edward Cabrera, who has had a rough year with a 1-3 record and a brutal 8.26 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 3.35 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could improve. Cabrera is projected to pitch five innings, give up 2.4 earned runs, and strike out 5.4 batters—indicators of an average performance.

The Mets will counter with Sean Manaea, who boasts a strong 6-3 record and a solid 3.46 ERA. However, his 4.24 xFIP hints at some fortunate outcomes thus far. Manaea is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and record 5.2 strikeouts. Despite his good stats, his high walk rate could be a vulnerability against a disciplined Marlins offense that ranks 1st in drawing the fewest walks.

Offensively, the Marlins are among the worst in the league, ranking 29th overall and dead last in home runs. Conversely, the Mets are rolling with the 7th best offense, excelling particularly in power categories with a 5th-best home run ranking.

Given these factors, this game is projected to be closer than the betting markets suggest. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Marlins a 52% win probability—a 7% edge over their implied odds. With the Mets slightly favored at -135, bettors might find value in backing the underdog Marlins in what promises to be an intriguing contest.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Sean Manaea has averaged 93.3 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  J.D. Martinez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 16.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Edward Cabrera has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 11% more often this season (74.1%) than he did last season (63.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Bryan De La Cruz’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 89.5-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 79.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 57 of their last 92 games (+16.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 18% ROI)