Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-140
On May 30, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field for the first game of their series. The Guardians, currently sitting at 30-25, are having an above-average season, while the Angels, with a record of 25-30, are struggling to find their footing. In their last outing, the Guardians secured a solid 7-4 victory, while the Angels faced a tough loss, falling 1-0.
Luis Ortiz is projected to take the mound for the Guardians. Despite his 2-5 record and an average ERA of 4.73, Ortiz has a 3.82 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this season. His ability to strike out 5.9 batters per game could be pivotal, especially against an Angels offense that ranks 2nd in the least walks drawn. This may play to Ortiz’s advantage as he faces a lineup that has struggled to capitalize on pitching mistakes.
On the other side, Jose Soriano is expected to start for the Angels. With a 3.73 ERA and a Power Rankings position of 49th among MLB starters, Soriano has been effective, though he also pitched 5 innings with 3 earned runs in his last start. Both pitchers project to allow 2.4 earned runs today, making this matchup intriguing.
The Guardians’ offense ranks 22nd in the league, which is disappointing, but they have shown flashes of power, ranking 15th in home runs. Conversely, the Angels boast a potent power game, sitting 4th in home runs but are hindered by a 27th ranking in batting average. The Guardians are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Angels’ 3.96 runs. As the teams meet, the Guardians will look to leverage their home-field advantage, while the Angels aim to break out of their slump.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jose Soriano – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)Jose Soriano’s four-seamer usage has dropped by 6% from last season to this one (13.8% to 7.8%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Zach Neto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last year’s 94.5-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Los Angeles Angels have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Soler, Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, Jo Adell, Scott Kingery).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Extreme groundball batters like Jose Ramirez usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Soriano.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Cleveland’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the league: #28 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)Zach Neto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.50 Units / 65% ROI)