Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-110
On August 20, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Boston Red Sox at Minute Maid Park for the second game of their series. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Astros sitting at 68-56 and the Red Sox at 65-59. The Astros recently edged out the Red Sox in a tightly contested game, winning 5-4 on August 19, a result that adds some stakes to this matchup.
Ronel Blanco is projected to start for the Astros, boasting a solid 2.89 ERA this season, despite being ranked as the 170th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he may have benefitted from some luck. His last outing was impressive, where he went six innings without allowing an earned run, striking out four batters. However, his projected averages show he may allow more earned runs than expected, which could be a concern against a potent Red Sox offense.
Nick Pivetta will take the mound for Boston. Although his ERA sits at a modest 4.49, he has a better xFIP of 3.39, suggesting he may improve as the season progresses. Pivetta has faced challenges lately, with a recent start where he allowed three earned runs in five innings. Both pitchers are right-handed, but Pivetta’s high strikeout rate faces off against an Astros lineup that struggles to strike out, which could tip the scales in Houston’s favor.
The Astros rank 11th overall in offense but are 2nd in team batting average and 9th in home runs, showcasing their ability to generate runs effectively. Conversely, the Red Sox offense ranks 4th in MLB, led by Jarren Duran, who has had a standout season. Despite the close odds set at -110 for both teams, projections suggest the Astros might have the edge, with an expected average score of 4.74 runs compared to Boston’s 4.45. Given the Astros’ strong bullpen, ranked 5th overall, they could capitalize on any mistakes made by the Red Sox. This game has the potential to be a thrilling matchup, especially considering the recent performances from both teams.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2265 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2332 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Tyler O’Neill has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last year’s 92.8-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Ronel Blanco has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme flyball batters like Jeremy Pena tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Houston Astros have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shay Whitcomb, Jon Singleton, Chas McCormick).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 74 games (+19.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.35 Units / 39% ROI)