Read Phillies vs Mariners Picks and Betting Odds – Sunday August 04, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners

As the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners prepare for their matchup on August 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race to solidify their positions, especially with the playoffs drawing closer. The Phillies (65-45) are enjoying a strong season, while the Mariners (59-53) have shown signs of improvement but still have room to grow. After their last encounter, which saw the Mariners edge out the Phillies with a 6-5 victory, the stage is set for another competitive game.

Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, looking to bounce back after a rough outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. Despite this setback, Gilbert holds a respectable ERA of 3.11 this season and ranks as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, he’ll face a challenge against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, who is having an elite year with a 2.94 ERA and ranks 10th best among starting pitchers. Wheeler’s ability to strike out hitters (26.9 K%) could be a decisive factor, particularly against a Mariners lineup that strikes out more than any other team in MLB.

Offensively, the Mariners have struggled, ranking 26th overall and dead last in batting average. In contrast, the Phillies boast a prolific offense that ranks 7th in MLB, highlighted by Kyle Schwarber’s impressive performance, including 22 home runs this season. The projections indicate a low-scoring affair, with the Mariners expected to tally around 3.58 runs and the Phillies at 4.23 runs.

Given the matchup of elite pitcher against a weak offense and the recent form of both teams, the projections lean toward a competitive game, but anticipate that the Phillies might come out on top.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Zack Wheeler has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 8.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.255) provides evidence that Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year with his .316 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (67.1% vs. 57.9% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Seattle Mariners bats collectively rank among the elite in the league this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games at home (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 59 of their last 98 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+180/-235)
  Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)