Read Orioles vs Yankees Picks and Betting Odds – Thursday September 26, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

As the MLB regular season nears its end, the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles gear up for a pivotal matchup on September 26, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, leading the American League East with a 92-66 record, host the Orioles, who are also in the playoff hunt with a solid 88-70 performance this season. It’s a crucial game in the series, as both teams are vying for playoff positioning.

In the previous encounter on September 25, the Orioles came out on top, defeating the Yankees 9-7. As both teams return to the field, New York is eager to rebound and extend their division lead.

The Yankees will send ace Gerrit Cole to the mound. Although Cole is having a good season with a 3.67 ERA, he’s been inconsistent at times. However, in his last outing, he pitched a remarkable complete game, allowing just one earned run. The projections suggest Cole may allow 2.6 earned runs and strike out 6.5 batters on average today, indicating the potential for a strong performance.

The Orioles will counter with Corbin Burnes, who boasts an impressive 2.95 ERA. The projections indicate Burnes might give up 2.6 earned runs and strike out 5.2 batters on average. Despite his stellar numbers, there are indicators that Burnes has been somewhat fortunate this season, with an xFIP of 3.62 suggesting potential regression.

Offensively, both teams boast power-packed lineups. The Yankees and Orioles rank 1st and 2nd in home runs this season, respectively. Aaron Judge continues to be a force for the Yankees, while Gunnar Henderson leads the charge for the Orioles. Over the past week, Judge has been on a tear, hitting .421 with four homers.

The Yankees are favorites with a 60% implied win probability, but THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives them a slightly lower edge at 58%. With both teams aiming for postseason supremacy, this game promises high stakes and electrifying action.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Corbin Burnes’s cutter rate has fallen by 10.9% from last year to this one (55.4% to 44.5%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Gerrit Cole’s fastball velocity of 95.3 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-165)
  The New York Yankees projected batting order grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 102 games (+17.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+16.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 16% ROI)