St. Louis Cardinals
Kansas City Royals
(-115/-105)-115
On August 9, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Kauffman Stadium for the first game of an Interleague series. The Royals enter this matchup with a solid 64-52 record, while the Cardinals sit slightly behind at 59-57. Kansas City is enjoying a strong season, and they recently defeated the Boston Red Sox 8-4 on August 7, showcasing their ability to produce offensively. In contrast, St. Louis is coming off a 6-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, indicating some struggles as they try to find their footing.
Projected starters Michael Lorenzen for the Royals and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals both bring their own challenges to the mound. Lorenzen, despite being ranked #214 among starting pitchers, has a commendable ERA of 3.69 this season. However, his 4.97 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate so far and could face challenges in this game. Mikolas, on the other hand, has an ERA of 5.12, which is below par, but his 4.23 xFIP indicates he has the potential to improve.
The Royals’ offense ranks 12th best overall and 11th in batting average, bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr.’s impressive season. Witt leads the team with a .349 batting average and has been a consistent contributor. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 20th in offense, struggling particularly with power, as they’re 22nd in home runs.
With the projections showing Kansas City likely to score around 4.91 runs, while St. Louis is projected to tally 4.87 runs, this matchup should be competitive. However, the Royals, with their current momentum and home advantage, appear to have the edge going into this series opener.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)Miles Mikolas has compiled a 7.1% Swinging Strike% this year, ranking in the 2nd percentile.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Nolan Gorman has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.4-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 88.7-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Michael Lorenzen is projected to strikeout 3.6 hitters in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+125/-160)Posting a .325 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Bobby Witt Jr. is positioned in the 99th percentile.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Kansas City has performed as the #28 squad in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41.3% rate this year).Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games at home (+8.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 away games (+5.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 61% ROI)