Read Athletics vs Phillies Picks and Betting Odds – Friday July 12, 2024

Oakland Athletics

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Oakland Athletics on July 12, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in an intriguing interleague matchup. With the Phillies boasting a stellar 61-32 record and the A’s struggling at 35-60, this game appears to heavily favor Philadelphia. The Phillies, currently having a great season, are looking to solidify their standing, while the Athletics continue to have a rough year.

Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies, bringing his impressive 10-3 record and an excellent 2.58 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Suarez is the #34 best starting pitcher in MLB. His high 55% groundball rate could be particularly effective against an Athletics lineup that ranks 6th in home runs but struggles otherwise, ranking 25th in overall offense and 28th in team batting average. Suarez has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 3.17 xERA, but he still projects to pitch solidly, with an average of 6.0 innings, 2.4 earned runs, and 6.0 strikeouts today.

Hogan Harris, one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, will start for Oakland. Despite his respectable 3.22 ERA, his 4.85 xFIP suggests he’s been quite lucky and could regress. Harris projects to allow 2.9 earned runs over 5.1 innings, with a low strikeout projection of 3.8 batters.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 4th in MLB, with a particularly potent lineup that ranks 3rd in team batting average and 7th in home runs. They also excel on the base paths, ranking 4th in stolen bases. Trea Turner has been red-hot over the last week, batting .417 with a 1.378 OPS, 10 hits, 11 RBIs, and 4 home runs in just 6 games.

On the flip side, the Athletics’ offense has been inconsistent, despite their power. Brent Rooker, their best hitter over the last week, has performed well with a .368 batting average and a 1.132 OPS, but the team as a whole struggles to get on base and score runs consistently.

The Phillies’ bullpen, ranked 3rd by advanced-stat Power Rankings, should also provide a significant edge over the Athletics’ bullpen, which ranks 10th. Given the Phillies’ offensive firepower and the disparity in starting pitching, Philadelphia is a massive betting favorite with a moneyline of -275, indicating a 71% implied win probability. The Athletics are underdogs at +230, with an implied win probability of 29%.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)
  In his last start, Hogan Harris was on point and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Hitters such as Brent Rooker with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oakland Athletics hitters collectively have been among the best in the majors this year (7th-) in regard to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Generating 18 outs per game per started this year on average, Ranger Suarez checks in at the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Rafael Marchan – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  In the past 7 days, Rafael Marchan’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bryce Harper has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-255)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 77 games (+23.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.50 Units / 27% ROI)