Los Angeles Angels
Texas Rangers
(-105/-115)-175
As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Los Angeles Angels on September 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Rangers sit at 69-74, while the Angels are even further behind at 59-83. Despite their struggles, the Rangers are favored with an implied team total of 4.77 runs, reflecting a belief they can exploit the Angels’ vulnerabilities.
In their most recent outing, the Rangers faced the Angels and fell short, continuing a troubling trend. Andrew Heaney is slated to take the mound for the Rangers. Heaney, a left-hander with a 4-13 record this season, showcases a respectable ERA of 3.81 but ranks as the 137th best starting pitcher in baseball, indicating he has been below average overall. The projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings today, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs and striking out an average of 5.1 batters.
On the flip side, the Angels will counter with Caden Dana, a right-handed pitcher making only his second start of the season. Dana holds an impressive ERA of 3.00, but his 5.88 xFIP suggests he may not sustain this level of performance. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out fewer batters than Heaney.
Offensively, the Rangers rank 23rd overall in MLB, while the Angels sit at 26th. However, the Rangers have seen a bright spot in Josh Jung, who has been their best hitter lately, batting .444 with a 1.204 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Taylor Ward has also been strong for the Angels but won’t have enough support from a lackluster lineup.
With the Rangers looking to turn their fortunes around and the Angels struggling to find any consistency, this matchup presents an opportunity for Texas to capitalize on their home field advantage.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)Caden Dana is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Michael Stefanic – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Michael Stefanic is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Texas (#3-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Compared to their .307 overall projected rate, the .289 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Angels projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has relied on his secondary pitches 5.5% more often this season (47.8%) than he did last year (42.3%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Over the last 14 days, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Texas’s 91.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #28 offense in the game this year by this metric.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Betting Trends
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 93 games (+7.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- Michael Stefanic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Michael Stefanic has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 81% ROI)