Rays vs Yankees Match Preview and Winning Probability – Tuesday July 29, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays today, July 29, 2025, in the second game of their series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, currently positioned at 57-49, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays sit at 54-53, having an average campaign. With playoff contention in mind, every game counts as both teams vie for a Wild Card spot.

In their last matchup, the Yankees emerged victorious, showcasing their offensive prowess. Led by an elite offense that ranks 1st in MLB, the Yankees have tallied 168 home runs this season, a number that could loom large against Rays’ starter Joe Boyle, who has a tendency to give up fly balls (47% flyball rate). Max Fried, projected to start for the Yankees, has been nothing short of dominant. With a Win/Loss record of 11-4 and an exceptional ERA of 2.62, he stands as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings.

Conversely, Boyle’s performance has been below-average, and while he boasts a sparkling ERA of 1.42, his xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate, likely to regress. The projections indicate that Fried will pitch around 6.2 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs, while Boyle is projected for just 3.8 innings with 2.3 earned runs allowed.

As the Yankees’ bats are red-hot, with their best hitter recording a .304 batting average and a 1.099 OPS over the last week, they are positioned as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -200. Conversely, the Rays, despite having a respectable offense ranking 13th in MLB, are underdogs at +170. With the Yankees’ elite offense facing a struggling pitcher, it shapes up to be a compelling matchup that could tilt heavily in New York’s favor.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joe Boyle to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jonathan Aranda, Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Matt Thaiss).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Max Fried has used his cut-fastball 10.3% more often this year (15.1%) than he did last season (4.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Ryan McMahon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 101 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)