Rays vs Red Sox Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 9/29/24

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays gear up for the final game of their series on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves with identical 80-81 records in the American League East. Neither team is in contention for the division title, making this matchup more about pride and finishing strong. The Rays took the most recent game in the series with a decisive 7-2 victory over the Red Sox on September 28, showcasing their ability to capitalize on Boston’s pitching struggles.

On the mound, the Red Sox will start Quinn Priester, who has had a challenging season with a 5.04 ERA. While his peripheral stats suggest some bad luck, Priester has struggled with consistency, posting a 2-6 record. The Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot, whose 3.64 ERA and 8-7 record reflect a solid campaign. Pepiot’s performance has been bolstered by his ability to strike out batters, which could spell trouble for the Red Sox, who rank 3rd in strikeouts among offenses.

Offensively, Boston holds the edge with a lineup ranked 7th in MLB, driven by the power of Triston Casas, who has been hot with four home runs and a 1.285 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the Rays have struggled at the plate, ranking 29th overall, though they boast an impressive 4th in stolen bases, which could create opportunities against Priester’s groundball tendencies.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a toss-up, projecting both teams with a 50% win probability. However, with the betting markets slightly favoring the Rays at -120, there’s a narrative supporting Boston’s potential to outperform expectations, especially with their potent offense and Priester’s chance to rebound against a low-power Rays lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Ryan Pepiot performed well in his last start and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bats such as Josh Lowe with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Quinn Priester who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Quinn Priester has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -15.3 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Mickey Gasper – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Mickey Gasper is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+19.81 Units / 12% ROI)
• Richie Palacios – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Richie Palacios has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)