Rays vs Blue Jays Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre on July 24, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Blue Jays fell to the Rays 4-2 yesterday, a game that saw Toronto as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130 but unable to capitalize on their 54% implied win probability. This American League East matchup sees the 45-55 Blue Jays trying to correct their below-average season against the 51-50 Rays, who are hovering around mediocrity this year.

Toronto will send Yariel Rodriguez to the mound, a right-hander ranked 145th among MLB starters. While Rodriguez has posted a solid 3.67 ERA, his 4.23 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat lucky and might regress. In his nine starts this season, Rodriguez has a 1-3 win/loss record and projects to pitch an average of 3.9 innings today, allowing 1.9 earned runs, 3.3 hits, and 1.8 walks. These peripheral indicators highlight the challenges the Blue Jays might face with Rodriguez on the hill.

On the flip side, the Rays will counter with Zach Eflin, a far more reliable starter ranked 33rd. Eflin has a 4.14 ERA this season but his impressive 3.38 xERA indicates he’s been unlucky and should improve. With a 5-7 record in 18 starts, Eflin is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and just 0.9 walks. His low 19.0 K% might be less of a disadvantage against a Toronto lineup that is near the top for least strikeouts in MLB.

Offensively, both teams are struggling. Toronto ranks 21st in batting average and 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s offense is 22nd and 26th in batting average and home runs but excels with their 5th rank in stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains the brightest spot for Toronto, boasting a .293 batting average and 0.841 OPS, while Isaac Paredes leads Tampa Bay with 16 home runs and a 0.798 OPS.

The bullpens will also be a factor. Toronto’s bullpen ranks 23rd, whereas Tampa Bay’s bullpen is stronger at 12th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This disparity could provide the Rays with a crucial edge in late-game situations.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives both teams a 50% win probability, suggesting a tightly contested game. With betting markets setting both teams at -110 on the moneyline, this matchup is projected to be as close as they come. While the Jays aim to bounce back from their latest loss, the Rays look to build on their current momentum.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Recording 17.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Zach Eflin ranks in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ben Rortvedt’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 87.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 78-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tampa Bay Rays batters as a unit rank in the cellar of baseball this year ( 4th-worst) in regard to their 88-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yariel Rodriguez has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  In terms of his batting average, George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year. His .228 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .287.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 48% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+18.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.20 Units / 28% ROI)