Baltimore Orioles
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)-150
On August 6, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Baltimore Orioles at Citizens Bank Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Phillies are riding high with a 65-48 record this season, positioning themselves firmly in playoff contention, while the Orioles are struggling at 51-63. In their last outing, the Phillies won against the Orioles, continuing their solid performance this season.
The matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Ranger Suarez for the Phillies and Trevor Rogers for the Orioles. Suarez has had a strong season, boasting an 8-4 record and an impressive 2.68 ERA, placing him as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. However, projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky this year, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.55, which is higher than his ERA. He is expected to pitch about 5.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.1 batters.
On the other hand, Trevor Rogers, with a record of 4-2 and a standout ERA of 1.44, also appears to have benefitted from good fortune, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.69. He projects for 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.8 earned runs while striking out 4.9 batters.
Offensively, the Phillies rank 7th in MLB, showcasing a powerful lineup, while the Orioles sit at a more modest 15th, with a particularly weak batting average ranking of 20th. This disparity in offensive production could be pivotal, especially given that the Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.62 runs.
With the Phillies looking to build on their momentum and take advantage of the Orioles’ struggles, this game shapes up as a critical one for both teams, albeit for very different reasons.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Trevor Rogers’s four-seam fastball rate has risen by 10.5% from last season to this one (31.7% to 42.2%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Ranger Suarez’s 89.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.3-mph drop off from last season’s 90.8-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber, Weston Wilson).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts