Rankings and Game Forecast: Orioles vs Athletics Analysis – Sunday June 8, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on June 8, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season with records of 25-41 and 26-37, respectively. The Athletics are not in contention for a playoff spot, and their recent performance has been dismal, having lost to the Orioles in their last matchup by a score of 7-4.

In this third game of the series, the Athletics will send Jacob Lopez to the mound, who has had a rough season thus far. Lopez is 0-4 with a troubling 7.20 ERA and projects to struggle again, averaging only 4.5 innings pitched and allowing 2.4 earned runs. His high walk rate (10.2 BB%) could play into the Orioles’ hands, as they rank among the teams with the fewest walks taken this season, potentially limiting their ability to capitalize on his control issues.

On the other hand, Tomoyuki Sugano will take the ball for the Orioles. With a 5-3 record and an impressive 3.04 ERA, Sugano has been one of the more reliable pitchers in a below-average rotation. He pitched well in his last outing, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run allowed. However, projections suggest he may be due for a downturn, as his 4.23 xFIP indicates he has been a bit fortunate this year.

Despite both teams’ struggles, the Athletics boast a strong offense, ranking 7th in MLB for home runs and 4th in batting average, suggesting they have the firepower to score runs. In contrast, the Orioles’ offense ranks 21st overall, which could hinder their chances against a talented Athletics lineup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (71.7% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Typically, hitters like Coby Mayo who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jacob Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Coby Mayo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Jacob Lopez’s 2113-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Hits
  Max Muncy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Athletics projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit weaker than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)