Rankings and Game Forecast: Orioles vs Athletics Analysis – Sunday June 8, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Athletics

As the Baltimore Orioles head to Sutter Health Park on June 8, 2025, to face the Oakland Athletics, both teams are struggling this season, sitting near the bottom of the American League standings. The Athletics, with a record of 25-41, are hoping to turn things around after a disappointing loss to the Orioles by a score of 7-4 the previous day. Meanwhile, the Orioles are slightly ahead at 26-37, but both teams are in dire need of a win.

On the mound, the Athletics are set to start Jacob Lopez, who has had a rough season with an 0-4 record and a dismal ERA of 7.20. Lopez’s last outing was particularly troubling, as he allowed 7 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched. His advanced stats suggest he has been unlucky, but projecting only 4.6 innings today with 2.4 earned runs allowed doesn’t inspire much confidence.

In contrast, the Orioles will counter with Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been more effective this season, boasting a 5-3 record and a solid 3.04 ERA. Sugano’s last start was impressive, where he pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 earned run. However, the projections indicate he might be due for some regression.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 7th in MLB for team home runs, showcasing their power potential, while their batting average ranks 4th, indicating strong underlying talent. The Orioles, on the other hand, sit at 21st in overall offense and 22nd in batting average, which could be a significant disadvantage in this matchup.

With a high game total of 10.5 runs, and the Athletics projected to score 4.84 runs, they may have the edge offensively. However, the Orioles’ bullpen ranks 8th in MLB, which could help seal a close game. As the teams meet for the third time in this series, it will be crucial for the Athletics to harness their offensive strengths to overcome their pitching woes.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (71.7% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Coby Mayo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Jacob Lopez’s 2113-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 6th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  JJ Bleday has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brent Rooker, Max Muncy, Willie MacIver).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (+110/-140)
  Tomoyuki Sugano has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.20 Units / 60% ROI)