Rankings and Game Forecast: Mets vs Phillies Analysis – Tuesday September 9, 2025

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets are set to clash in a key National League East matchup on September 9, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season with an 84-60 record, while the Mets sit at 76-68, having had an above-average year. In their last game, the Phillies edged out the Mets in a nail-biter, winning 1-0, showcasing their solid pitching and effective offense.

Ranger Suarez, projected to start for the Phillies, is having an impressive year, holding a 2.89 ERA and a solid 3.71 xFIP. He has been consistent, going 11-6 over 22 starts, and pitched a complete game shutout in his last outing on September 4, allowing no earned runs. Suarez’s low walk rate of 5.7 BB% should limit the Mets’ high-walk offense, presenting a potential challenge for New York as they face a pitcher with such good control.

On the other hand, Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Mets. His stats tell a different story, with a 5.60 ERA and a record of 1-2 across 9 starts. While Manaea has shown that he can strike out batters at a good rate—averaging 6.1 strikeouts per game—his inconsistency has led to struggles, as seen in his last outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4 innings.

Offensively, the Phillies rank 6th in MLB, with a potent attack highlighted by their 3rd best team batting average. Conversely, the Mets also boast a solid offense, ranking 4th in the league. The projections lean slightly toward the Phillies, who are favored in this matchup. Given that both teams showcased their strengths in their previous meeting and considering the elevated performance of Suarez, the Phillies may have the edge in this tightly contested rivalry.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Generating 13.9 outs per game per started this year on average, Sean Manaea falls in the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+245/-340)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Ranger Suarez’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.7% compared to 49.1% last year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Harrison Bader has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 87.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber, Weston Wilson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 52 of their last 91 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 31% ROI)