Rankings and Game Forecast: Giants vs Marlins Analysis – Friday May 30, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

Miami Marlins

On May 30, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the San Francisco Giants at LoanDepot Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Marlins are struggling this season with a record of 22-32, while the Giants are faring better at 31-25. Despite their overall performance, Miami is coming off a recent win that snapped a losing streak, providing a glimmer of hope as they face a solid opponent.

Cal Quantrill is projected to take the mound for the Marlins. He has had a rocky season, with a 3-4 record and an alarming ERA of 6.09, making him one of the lower-ranked pitchers in MLB at #297 out of approximately 350. His projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings and allow approximately 2.8 earned runs, which is concerning given his tendency to give up hits and walks.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Kyle Harrison, who has had limited appearances this season but boasts a respectable ERA of 3.86 in his single start. Although he is projected to pitch about 4.6 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, his strikeout rate is below-average, which could be a factor against a Marlins offense that ranks 16th overall in MLB.

The Giants offense, however, has struggled, ranking 21st overall, and has a particularly poor batting average of 25th. This could play in the Marlins’ favor, especially considering the Giants’ #1 ranked bullpen, which could stifle any late-game rallies.

With the Marlins as significant underdogs at +150 and an implied team total of just 3.71 runs, the odds seem stacked against them. However, with the right performance from Quantrill and their offense, they could surprise the Giants, who are favored at -175 with an implied total of 4.79 runs. This matchup holds potential for an interesting outcome as both teams look to establish momentum in this early series clash.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Kyle Harrison’s 2205.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 23rd percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cal Quantrill.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Cal Quantrill is an extreme flyball pitcher (33% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Kyle Stowers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (96% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+7.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)