St. Louis Cardinals
San Diego Padres
(-120/+100)-150
On August 2, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park for the second game of their series. The Padres currently hold a record of 61-49, while the Cardinals sit at 55-56. The Padres are enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals are hovering around .500, indicating an average performance thus far.
In their last encounter, the Padres emerged victorious with a 4-1 win, showcasing their ability to capitalize on opportunities. Randy Vasquez is projected to take the mound for San Diego, and while he has a decent ERA of 3.65, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a downturn, as evidenced by his 5.97 xFIP. Vasquez’s low strikeout rate could become a factor against a Cardinals lineup that has proven to be difficult to strike out, ranking among the league’s lowest in that category.
On the other side, St. Louis will counter with Michael McGreevy, who has had an up-and-down season. His 4.91 ERA does not inspire confidence, but projections indicate he could be in line for improvement given his lower xFIP of 4.30. McGreevy’s last outing was a struggle, as he allowed 7 earned runs over 5 innings, a performance he will be eager to put behind him.
Despite the Padres’ 23rd-ranked offense in the league, they are bolstered by the 1st-ranked bullpen, which should provide strong support late in the game. With the Padres favored at -150, their high implied team total of 4.62 runs suggests that they may find ways to exploit McGreevy’s struggles. In contrast, the Cardinals will need their offense to step up against a pitcher who has the potential to limit scoring opportunities.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Michael McGreevy has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Nolan Gorman has big-time HR ability (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (31.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez is a pitch-to-contact type (6th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Randy Vasquez has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.4% more often this year (62.3%) than he did last season (55.9%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The San Diego Padres (18.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone set of batters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 96 games (+16.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.91 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 19% ROI)