Rankings and Game Forecast: Braves vs Mets Analysis – Monday June 23, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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New York Mets

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on June 23, 2025, in the first game of a crucial series between these National League East rivals. The Mets currently sit at 46-32, enjoying a strong season, while the Braves are struggling at 35-41. In their last games, the Mets fell to the Braves in a disappointing 7-1 loss, whereas the Braves also faced defeat, losing 5-3.

Mets’ starter Paul Blackburn has had a rough year, holding a 0-1 record with a 6.92 ERA over just two starts. His advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, but projecting only 4.9 innings with an average of 3.1 earned runs today raises concerns about his ability to keep the game competitive. The Mets’ offense, ranked 5th in MLB, has been potent, but Blackburn’s struggles could put added pressure on them to deliver.

On the other side, the Braves will send out Spencer Schwellenbach, who is having an elite season with a 5-4 record and a 3.26 ERA over 15 starts. Schwellenbach has demonstrated excellent control with a low walk rate of 4.2 BB%, which could neutralize the Mets’ high-walk offense that ranks 4th in the league. However, his tendency to induce ground balls (48% GB rate) could be tested against the Mets, who have hit 103 home runs this season, ranking 6th in MLB.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Braves are favored at -150, while the Mets are underdogs at +125. The projections suggest a tight matchup, but with the Mets’ offensive capabilities and the potential for Blackburn to improve, this game could see some fireworks.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has relied on his secondary offerings 8.9% less often this season (55.2%) than he did last year (64.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Blackburn.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Paul Blackburn’s fastball velocity of 91.1 mph grades out in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Francisco Lindor has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)
  The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nick Allen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Nick Allen has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 31% ROI)