Rangers vs Mariners Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Friday April 11, 2025

Texas Rangers

@

Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Texas Rangers on April 11, 2025, they find themselves struggling with a record of 5-8 this season. The Rangers, in stark contrast, are soaring with a strong 9-4 mark. This American League West matchup not only carries playoff implications but also showcases two starting pitchers with contrasting forms: Bryce Miller for the Mariners and Jacob deGrom for the Rangers.

Miller enters this game in search of his first win, holding an 0-2 record with a concerning ERA of 5.73. Although advanced statistics suggest he might be due for better luck soon, his projections indicate he could allow 2.2 earned runs today, which isn’t terrible. However, his struggles this season, highlighted by a high walk rate of 10.4%, could prove detrimental against a Rangers lineup that ranks as the 2nd lowest in walks drawn.

On the other hand, deGrom is off to a solid start, posting a 3.38 ERA and an elite Power Ranking of 13th among MLB starting pitchers. Projections suggest he will allow just 1.8 earned runs while striking out 7.6 batters on average. With a low walk rate of 4.6%, he’s likely to mitigate the Mariners’ strengths in drawing walks, potentially giving him the edge.

While the Mariners’ recent offensive woes include ranking 21st in MLB overall and 29th in batting average, they do boast a 2nd place ranking in stolen bases. Their best hitter has shown signs of life recently, batting .333 over the past week. However, the projected low game total of 6.5 runs and their implied team total of just 3.10 runs suggests that scoring may be challenging. Meanwhile, the Rangers, despite their 24th ranking in offense, will aim to capitalize on any mistakes Miller makes.

Betting lines favor the Rangers at -130, which may not reflect their stronger standing in this matchup. As these two teams clash, the Rangers look poised to take advantage of the Mariners’ struggles.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  With 7 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jacob deGrom encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-125)
  The 5th-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Texas Rangers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all starters, Bryce Miller’s fastball spin rate of 2484.8 rpm is in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Typically, batters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jacob deGrom.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-125)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 40% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)