Rangers vs Mariners Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Friday, August 01, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park on August 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive American League West matchup. The Mariners, currently sitting at 58-52, are enjoying an above-average season and possess the 10th best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Rangers, at 57-53, are also above average but rank just 26th in offense, indicating a significant disparity between the two.

In their previous matchup, the Mariners secured a win, further extending their edge in this series. Seattle’s ace, Logan Gilbert, is projected to take the mound, boasting a stellar 3.36 ERA and an impressive 2.38 xFIP, suggesting he has been unlucky this season and could improve even further. Gilbert, ranked 15th among MLB’s starting pitchers, has started 14 games this year, with a 3-4 record. He projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.0 batters—numbers that signal a strong outing.

Conversely, Texas will send Jack Leiter to the hill, whose 4.09 ERA is above average but comes with a troubling 4.76 xFIP. Leiter has struggled this season, projecting to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out just 4.6 batters. His tendency to give up fly balls could spell trouble against a powerful Mariners offense that ranks 5th in home runs.

With the Mariners favored at a moneyline of -170 and an implied team total of 4.21 runs, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on their advantages, especially given Texas’s subpar offense and struggling pitching. As both teams look to establish momentum in the series, Seattle’s strengths should give them the edge in this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Jack Leiter projects for an average of 14.7 outs in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Evan Carter has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Logan Gilbert’s change-up utilization has risen by 6.9% from last season to this one (13.4% to 20.3%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Eugenio Suarez has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 49.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal higher than his 32.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 106 games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Evan Carter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Evan Carter has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)